The Expected Value

Category: Glossary
Published on Sunday, 30 September 2012 14:08
Hits: 1893

In the short and medium term, the luck factor influences the results. It is interesting to minimize the luck factor whenever possible. The Expected Value (EV) reduces it.

Example :

  • Player 1 owns As Qs and 6 $ at the hand's beginning 
  • Player2 owns Ks Kd and 5,25 $ at the hand's beginning
  • The board is Ts 8s 2d
  • Player1 is all-in and player 2 calls
  • The pot is 10 $. The rake is 0,50 $
  • Player1 has 44,1 % chance of winning, one considers he wins 4,41 $
  • Player2 has 55,9 % chance of winning, one considers he wins 5,59 $
  • In the end player 2 wins the hand :
    • Net of player 1 is -5,25 $ (0 $ won for 5,25 invested)
    • Net EV of player1 is -0,84 euro (4,41 $ in theory won for 5,25 invested)
    • Net of player2 is 4,75 (10 $ won for 5,25 invested)
    • Net EV of player2 is +0,34 euro (5,59 $ in theory won for 5,25 invested)

A session's net EV is the sum of its hands' net Ev.

The difference between EV and net Ev is called Diff. Ev, and reflects luck and bad luck.